That’s my prediction.

Books are seldom an impulse buy. That’s because it’s difficult to make a buying decision by browsing through a store or Amazon. You generally buy a book because of a recommendation, especially with fiction, or a need for information.

However, the advent of digital readers like Kindle (soon to die) and the, to date, imaginary Apple tablet (likely to conquer) changes things. A Times article today notes that publishers are giving away authors’ earlier work in e-book format to spur sales of their new books and it’s working. The publishing industry is gnashing its teeth over the pricing- they still seem to think that they are in the business of printing ink on paper and having warehouses and trucks full of those things. Have they not watched the music business? Bought a CD lately? The stupidity of this is mind boggling.

There is a significant upside to this, and as an author, I think it is great. People can now buy a book anywhere, via wireless, and have it instantly. The prices have dropped to the point ($10) where an impulse buy is no big deal. And they can carry their entire library anywhere they go- meaning more reading time.

Several years ago my brother Richard and I wrote a book on kitchen design (he is a kitchen designer). The book still sells and I recently received word that the publisher is a doing an ‘electronic’ version (the fact that there is nothing ‘electronic’ about it is revealing). When I queried them about it they informed me that they were going to sell a .pdf file of the book on their web site and pay us a small royalty. I pointed out that this was an antiquated way to do things and that Amazon recently raised the publisher/author share to 70% on e-books. Even with the reduced price our royalty would be at least twice what we currently receive. They have not replied.

My response was this: Why shouldn’t we write another kitchen book and publish it ourselves in digital format? We have the expertise and content and the new formats will support video, links to resources and instant updates. With a tablet, the kitchen planning couple could walk into a home center, access the book and get feedback on products for their new kitchen. And even if it sold for ten bucks we’d make $6-7 for each sale.

The publisher might argue that they have a better ability to promote the book. I don’t think so. At seven dollars a pop I have sufficient motivation to promote the hell out of the book, especially since online marketing is what I do!

The point here is that the publishing industry is on the verge of a major opportunity and they are going to blow it. Apple and Amazon are going to do what they did to the music business- take out the distribution and democratize it. As an author, I’m excited. I might actually make some money from writing.